Top 10 and Bottom 10 Housing Markets
I just found this very interesting report in today’s Default Servicing Daily News identifying stable markets with opportunities for growth, as well as markets where home prices are expected to continue to drop over the next year.
Local Market Monitor Forecasts Top 10 and Bottom 10 Housing Markets
Carrie Bay
Cary, North Carolina-based Local Market Monitor, a real estate forecasting solution that helps investors in homes and home mortgages determine local market risk, has released its latest home price forecast. According to Local Market Monitor, the 10 markets with the worst expected performance in home price over the next year, predicted to show further declines of around 25 percent are:
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Merced, California
- Miami-Miami Beach, Florida
- Modesto, California
- Naples, Florida
- Riverside-San Bernardino, California
- Salinas, California
- Stockton, California
- Vallejo-Fairfield, California
According to Winzer these markets are among those that previously had the biggest price booms. Winzer said, “What we’re seeing in these markets is the result of speculative buying that came to an abrupt end. Although home values have already dropped substantially, it takes years for such markets to fully correct.”
Local Market Monitor said that investors can expect to see an average eight percent drop in home prices nationally during the next 12 months.
Local Market Monitor uses a proprietary formula called the Equilibrium Home Price to determine if markets are currently over or under valued and provide users with a long-term risk and investment perspective. Covering nearly 300 local markets, Local Market Monitor also presents investors with a 12-month home price forecast. The solution includes sorting capabilities allowing subscribers to view and compare real estate markets along various metrics.
According to Local Market Monitor’s forecast, the 10 markets with the best expected performance in home price, predicted to show increases of at least 2 percent in 2009 are:
- Abilene, Texas
- Decatur, Alabama
- Fayetteville, North Carolina
- Lafayette, Indiana
- Laredo, Texas
- Lubbock, Texas
- Monroe, Louisiana
- Montgomery, Alabama
- Tuscaloosa, Alabama
- Williamsport, Pennsylvania
Local Market Monitor explained that these top markets, where home values are expected to hold up, are among those that did not have a big housing boom. Home prices in these areas are generally under the U.S. average and reflect where the recession has so far had a relatively mild impact, the forecasting company said.
Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor, added, “These are markets where home prices never got out of synch with local incomes. In such markets, the recession has less of an impact on home values than in markets that were over-priced.”
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